Weather Markets Edge Desk
Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.
От сообщества: Добавлен пользователем или импортирован; проверьте владельца перед подключениемРаботаетБез входаГлобальныйБесплатноТолько чтение
Что умеет
Какие данные видит
Нужен ли аккаунт
Не нужен: сервер работает без входа
Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.
Список инструментов сервера (6)
Технические названия из tools/list. Нужны только разработчикам.
| edge_alerts | Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in percentage points, and a Kalshi market link. A Pro key returns the feed in real time; without a key you get the same feed delayed 24 hours with the thesis stripped. Every subscriber receives the identical, impersonal feed at the same time — the signals are not tailored to any individual. Filters (feed, min_tier, since) SELECT which alerts you see; they never change the signal content. Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "weather trade signals", "latest mispricings". Impersonal market analysis for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trade responsibly. |
| convert_probability | Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds". |
| base_rate_gap | Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "how does this price compare to history", "is the market ignoring the base rate", "historical frequency vs market". |
| bayes_update | Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds". |
| calculate_ev | Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal with a plain-English read. Use for "is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge", "should I take this position". From the PredictionMarketsPicks desk, which publishes a settled per-engine record — every signal graded against the market that priced it, wins and losses both: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record. |
| kelly_size | Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade". |