Weather Markets Edge Desk

Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.

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What it can do

    What data it sees

    Do you need an account

    No: the server works without sign-in

    Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.

    How to connect

    How to connect Weather Markets Edge Desk to Claude

    The server address to paste into Claude settings:

    https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp

    1. Open Claude (claude.ai or the desktop app).
    2. Go to Settings → Connectors.
    3. Click Add custom connector.
    4. Paste the server address copied below into Remote MCP server URL and click Add.
    5. In a chat, click + → Connectors and switch the new connector on.

    Custom connectors are available on Free, Pro, Max, Team and Enterprise plans (Free is limited to one). On Team and Enterprise an organization Owner adds the connector first under Organization settings → Connectors.

    Authorization

    After you click Add, a sign-in window for the service opens. Sign in with your own account and approve access. Claude never sees your password.

    How to connect Weather Markets Edge Desk to ChatGPT

    The server address to paste into ChatGPT settings:

    https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp

    1. Open ChatGPT in a browser (chatgpt.com). A Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise or Edu plan is required.
    2. Turn on developer mode once: Settings → Apps → Advanced settings → Developer mode.
    3. Open Settings → Connectors and click Create.
    4. Fill in the form: Name (anything), Description (one line about what the service does), MCP server URL (copy it below).
    5. Under Authentication choose OAuth if the service requires sign-in, otherwise None. Click Create.
    6. In a new chat open + → Apps/Connectors and enable the connector.

    OpenAI has renamed this section before (Connectors → Apps/Plugins). If the label differs, search settings for "developer mode". On Business/Enterprise workspaces an admin must allow custom connectors first.

    Authorization

    On first use ChatGPT opens the service's sign-in window. Sign in and approve access.

    How to connect Weather Markets Edge Desk to Cursor

    The server address to paste into Cursor settings:

    https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp

    Fastest: click Open in Cursor below and confirm the prompt.

    Manually:

    1. In Cursor open Settings → Cursor Settings → MCP and click Add new global MCP server.
    2. Paste the JSON copied below into ~/.cursor/mcp.json (per project: .cursor/mcp.json in the repo root).
    3. Save the file. The server appears in the MCP list; authorize it there if asked.

    Authorization

    If the service needs sign-in, an authorize button appears next to the server in the MCP list.

    Server tool list (6)

    Raw names from tools/list. Only developers need these.

    edge_alertsRead the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in percentage points, and a Kalshi market link. A Pro key returns the feed in real time; without a key you get the same feed delayed 24 hours with the thesis stripped. Every subscriber receives the identical, impersonal feed at the same time — the signals are not tailored to any individual. Filters (feed, min_tier, since) SELECT which alerts you see; they never change the signal content. Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "weather trade signals", "latest mispricings". Impersonal market analysis for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trade responsibly.
    convert_probabilityConvert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
    base_rate_gapCompare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "how does this price compare to history", "is the market ignoring the base rate", "historical frequency vs market".
    bayes_updateUpdate a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".
    calculate_evCalculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal with a plain-English read. Use for "is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge", "should I take this position". From the PredictionMarketsPicks desk, which publishes a settled per-engine record — every signal graded against the market that priced it, wins and losses both: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
    kelly_sizeCompute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".