votepredictor
US election forecasts with a public, auditable accuracy record.
What it can do
- Forecast Race: Current VotePredictor forecast for one 2026 US election: win probability, predicted margin, whether it comes from polls or fundamentals, how far it has moved this cycle, and the candida
- Chamber Outlook: Who is favoured to control the Senate or House after 2026: control probability, expected seats with an 80% range, how far it has moved since January, and the races that have moved mos
- Forecaster Accuracy: How accurate each election forecaster, model, prediction market and pollster has been on resolved races, adjusted for how hard each race was. Use this to answer 'whose election fo
What data it sees
Do you need an account
No: the server works without sign-in
US election forecasts with a public, auditable accuracy record.
Win probabilities and predicted margins for every 2026 Senate, House and Governor race — including the seats nobody polls, forecast from state lean, incumbency and the national environment and labelled as such. Voting records, ideology scores and reported net worth for all 537 members of Congress. Plus difficulty-adjusted accuracy ratings scoring FiveThirtyEight, Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Polymarket and Kalshi on resolved races since 1998 — with our own model ranked in place alongside them.
Three things the tools guarantee: nothing is published at 100%, every forecast states whether it came from polls or fundamentals, and races where a candidate has left the ballot return an explicit refusal rather than a stale number.
Server tool list (4)
Raw names from tools/list. Only developers need these.
| forecast_race | Current VotePredictor forecast for one 2026 US election: win probability, predicted margin, whether it comes from polls or fundamentals, how far it has moved this cycle, and the candidates. Accepts a state name or code ('Ohio', 'OH') or a district ('CA-12'). Returns an explicit refusal for races where a candidate has left the ballot and no forecast is published. |
| chamber_outlook | Who is favoured to control the Senate or House after 2026: control probability, expected seats with an 80% range, how far it has moved since January, and the races that have moved most. |
| forecaster_accuracy | How accurate each election forecaster, model, prediction market and pollster has been on resolved races, adjusted for how hard each race was. Use this to answer 'whose election forecast should I trust'. Difficulty adjustment matters: on raw scores whoever rated the safest races wins. |
| member_profile | A member of Congress by name or bioguide id: party, state, ideology score, reported net worth from financial disclosures, and the 2026 race for their seat. |