PredictionMarketsPicks Weather

Kalshi weather markets for AI agents: model-vs-market edge alerts, base-rate gaps and EV, Kelly and Bayes calculators for temperature and rain contracts.

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What it can do

  • Edge Alerts: Use for "any edge on Kalshi" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edg
  • Convert Probability: Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use
  • Base Rate Gap: Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp,

What data it sees

Do you need an account

No: the server works without sign-in

Kalshi weather markets for AI agents: model-vs-market edge alerts, base-rate gaps and EV, Kelly and Bayes calculators for temperature and rain contracts. Free, no key.

How to connect

How to connect PredictionMarketsPicks Weather to Claude

The server address to paste into Claude settings:

https://weather--predictionmarketspicks.run.tools

  1. Open Claude (claude.ai or the desktop app).
  2. Go to Settings → Connectors.
  3. Click Add custom connector.
  4. Paste the server address copied below into Remote MCP server URL and click Add.
  5. In a chat, click + → Connectors and switch the new connector on.

Custom connectors are available on Free, Pro, Max, Team and Enterprise plans (Free is limited to one). On Team and Enterprise an organization Owner adds the connector first under Organization settings → Connectors.

Authorization

After you click Add, a sign-in window for the service opens. Sign in with your own account and approve access. Claude never sees your password.

How to connect PredictionMarketsPicks Weather to ChatGPT

The server address to paste into ChatGPT settings:

https://weather--predictionmarketspicks.run.tools

  1. Open ChatGPT in a browser (chatgpt.com). A Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise or Edu plan is required.
  2. Turn on developer mode once: Settings → Apps → Advanced settings → Developer mode.
  3. Open Settings → Connectors and click Create.
  4. Fill in the form: Name (anything), Description (one line about what the service does), MCP server URL (copy it below).
  5. Under Authentication choose OAuth if the service requires sign-in, otherwise None. Click Create.
  6. In a new chat open + → Apps/Connectors and enable the connector.

OpenAI has renamed this section before (Connectors → Apps/Plugins). If the label differs, search settings for "developer mode". On Business/Enterprise workspaces an admin must allow custom connectors first.

Authorization

On first use ChatGPT opens the service's sign-in window. Sign in and approve access.

How to connect PredictionMarketsPicks Weather to Cursor

The server address to paste into Cursor settings:

https://weather--predictionmarketspicks.run.tools

Fastest: click Open in Cursor below and confirm the prompt.

Manually:

  1. In Cursor open Settings → Cursor Settings → MCP and click Add new global MCP server.
  2. Paste the JSON copied below into ~/.cursor/mcp.json (per project: .cursor/mcp.json in the repo root).
  3. Save the file. The server appears in the MCP list; authorize it there if asked.

Authorization

If the service needs sign-in, an authorize button appears next to the server in the MCP list.

Server tool list (6)

Raw names from tools/list. Only developers need these.

edge_alertsUse for "any edge on Kalshi" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.
convert_probabilityConvert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
base_rate_gapUse for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue. Free, no key.
bayes_updateUpdate a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".
calculate_evUse for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. Free, no key. Every PMP engine signal is graded in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
kelly_sizeCompute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".