nephyr-weather
GFS ensemble weather signals for prediction market edge detection.
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What it can do
- Get Weather Signals: Get GFS ensemble weather signals for one or more cities on a given date. Returns model probability of daily high exceeding various thresholds, derived from the 31-member GFS ensem
- Get Ensemble Forecast: Fetch the raw GFS 31-member ensemble forecast for a city on a given date. Returns per-member daily high temperatures, low temperatures, and precipitation. Useful for custom prob
- Detect Edges: Scan weather markets for edges — cases where the GFS model probability differs significantly from the market-implied probability. Requires a list of (signal, market) pairs. Returns all E
What data it sees
Do you need an account
No: the server works without sign-in
GFS ensemble weather signals for prediction market edge detection. Generate weather-based trading signals across 12 major cities, retrieve multi-day forecasts, calculate prediction market edges from weather data, and discover active weather-related markets. Turn meteorological data into actionable market intelligence.
Server tool list (5)
Raw names from tools/list. Only developers need these.
| get_weather_signals | Get GFS ensemble weather signals for one or more cities on a given date. Returns model probability of daily high exceeding various thresholds, derived from the 31-member GFS ensemble forecast. Requires cities (list of city names) and forecast_date (YYYY-MM-DD). Optional: threshold_f (temperature threshold, default 70), direction (above/below, default above), market_type (high/low/rain, default high). |
| get_ensemble_forecast | Fetch the raw GFS 31-member ensemble forecast for a city on a given date. Returns per-member daily high temperatures, low temperatures, and precipitation. Useful for custom probability calculations or verifying signal generation. |
| detect_edges | Scan weather markets for edges — cases where the GFS model probability differs significantly from the market-implied probability. Requires a list of (signal, market) pairs. Returns all EdgeResults, or only tradeable ones if tradeable_only=True. |
| list_active_markets | List active weather markets on Polymarket or Kalshi. Optionally filter by city. Returns market tickers, prices, volumes, and metadata. Kalshi requires api_key to be provided. |
| get_city_info | Get coordinates and metadata for a supported city, or list all supported cities if no city is provided. |