nephyr-risk

AI-powered prediction market risk management.

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What it can do

  • Calculate Kelly Size: Calculate the optimal position size for a prediction market trade using the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly by default). Returns the recommended dollar amount to risk, the raw Kel
  • Calculate Ev: Calculate the expected value of a YES contract after platform fees. Returns EV, edge (model prob − market price), fee per leg, round-trip fee, and whether EV is positive. Supports Polyma
  • Calculate Fee: Calculate the fee per leg for a given platform and contract price. Polymarket: flat 2% of price. Kalshi: 7% × P × (1−P).

What data it sees

Do you need an account

No: the server works without sign-in

AI-powered prediction market risk management. Calculate optimal position sizes with Kelly criterion, evaluate expected value, estimate platform fees, monitor real-time risk status, validate trades before execution, analyze portfolio exposure, and simulate drawdown scenarios. Built for AI agents and traders who need data-driven risk decisions.

How to connect

How to connect nephyr-risk to Claude

The server address to paste into Claude settings:

https://nephyr-risk--clm-studios.run.tools

  1. Open Claude (claude.ai or the desktop app).
  2. Go to Settings → Connectors.
  3. Click Add custom connector.
  4. Paste the server address copied below into Remote MCP server URL and click Add.
  5. In a chat, click + → Connectors and switch the new connector on.

Custom connectors are available on Free, Pro, Max, Team and Enterprise plans (Free is limited to one). On Team and Enterprise an organization Owner adds the connector first under Organization settings → Connectors.

Authorization

After you click Add, a sign-in window for the service opens. Sign in with your own account and approve access. Claude never sees your password.

How to connect nephyr-risk to ChatGPT

The server address to paste into ChatGPT settings:

https://nephyr-risk--clm-studios.run.tools

  1. Open ChatGPT in a browser (chatgpt.com). A Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise or Edu plan is required.
  2. Turn on developer mode once: Settings → Apps → Advanced settings → Developer mode.
  3. Open Settings → Connectors and click Create.
  4. Fill in the form: Name (anything), Description (one line about what the service does), MCP server URL (copy it below).
  5. Under Authentication choose OAuth if the service requires sign-in, otherwise None. Click Create.
  6. In a new chat open + → Apps/Connectors and enable the connector.

OpenAI has renamed this section before (Connectors → Apps/Plugins). If the label differs, search settings for "developer mode". On Business/Enterprise workspaces an admin must allow custom connectors first.

Authorization

On first use ChatGPT opens the service's sign-in window. Sign in and approve access.

How to connect nephyr-risk to Cursor

The server address to paste into Cursor settings:

https://nephyr-risk--clm-studios.run.tools

Fastest: click Open in Cursor below and confirm the prompt.

Manually:

  1. In Cursor open Settings → Cursor Settings → MCP and click Add new global MCP server.
  2. Paste the JSON copied below into ~/.cursor/mcp.json (per project: .cursor/mcp.json in the repo root).
  3. Save the file. The server appears in the MCP list; authorize it there if asked.

Authorization

If the service needs sign-in, an authorize button appears next to the server in the MCP list.

Server tool list (7)

Raw names from tools/list. Only developers need these.

calculate_kelly_sizeCalculate the optimal position size for a prediction market trade using the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly by default). Returns the recommended dollar amount to risk, the raw Kelly fraction, and whether the size was capped by the bankroll-percentage limit.
calculate_evCalculate the expected value of a YES contract after platform fees. Returns EV, edge (model prob − market price), fee per leg, round-trip fee, and whether EV is positive. Supports Polymarket (2% flat) and Kalshi (7% × P × (1−P)) fee models.
calculate_feeCalculate the fee per leg for a given platform and contract price. Polymarket: flat 2% of price. Kalshi: 7% × P × (1−P).
check_risk_statusCheck current risk management status. Returns ACTIVE (safe to trade), PAUSED (daily loss limit hit — resume tomorrow), or SHUTDOWN (max drawdown exceeded — manual review required). Also returns warnings when approaching limits.
validate_tradePre-trade risk check. Projects the worst case (total loss of proposed_size) and checks whether it would breach daily loss or drawdown limits. Returns approved/rejected with a reason and projected percentages.
get_exposureSummarise portfolio exposure relative to bankroll. Returns total exposure %, largest position %, number of positions, and a concentration risk flag (triggered when any single position exceeds 10% of bankroll).
simulate_drawdownSimulate a hypothetical sequence of losses against a starting bankroll. Shows when daily loss and drawdown limits would trigger, and reports the maximum drawdown percentage reached.